Sunday, January 22, 2006
Candians Will Wake Up to a Nice Surprise Tuesday
I couldn’t resist doing an ‘Election Prediction’ post. I will be concentrating locally in the Windsor region, rounding it out with the overall national seat.
Windsor West
Winner: Brian Masse - NDP
2. Werner Keller - Lib
3. Al Teshuba - Conservative
Masse’s popularity in the former Liberal stronghold will be impossible to overcome for the other candidates. Tough luck Al.
Windsor Tecumseh
Winner: Joe Comartin - NDP
2. Rick Fushi - Conservative
3. Bruck Easton
This one is very tough to call. I hope I am wrong on this one (I voted for Fushi), but I think that Comartins support will squeak this one out. Bruck is not a factor, given his turncoat history and a pathetic national campaign.
Essex
Winner: Jeff Watson
2. Taras Natyshak
3. Susan Whelan
Watson will win by a landslide. Today at the Harper rally in Windsor the crowd was shouting “Jeff, Jeff, Jeff…” An honour non of the other local Conservative candidates received. Whelan’s campaign has been controversial with her being endorsed by the Buzz “bomb” and the question of her lobbyist activities have not been resolved. It wouldn’t surprise me is Watson gets the highest percentage of the vote this side of the Manitoba-Ontario border.
National
Conservatives - 158 seats (MAJORITY)
NDP - 56 seats
Bloq - 53 seats
Liberals - 41 seats
Liberal support is soft. People that say they will vote Liberal will not necessarily show up at the polls because they cannot bring themselves to vote for a corrupt Liberal party and cannot bring themselves to vote for anyone else. That will not be enough to hand a majority to the Conservatives. I see the undecided voters (12 to 15%) hooking up with the party that has all but won the election. Together these conditions will hand the Conservatives a majority, leaving the Liberals in a political wasteland to strip the deadwood from the party.
UPDATE: I just visited Blue Blogging Soapbox and they are predicting 158 also (WOW). I never looked at that before I posted. What a co-inky-dink! I actually had 161 down before I changed it at the last minute.
Windsor West
Winner: Brian Masse - NDP
2. Werner Keller - Lib
3. Al Teshuba - Conservative
Masse’s popularity in the former Liberal stronghold will be impossible to overcome for the other candidates. Tough luck Al.
Windsor Tecumseh
Winner: Joe Comartin - NDP
2. Rick Fushi - Conservative
3. Bruck Easton
This one is very tough to call. I hope I am wrong on this one (I voted for Fushi), but I think that Comartins support will squeak this one out. Bruck is not a factor, given his turncoat history and a pathetic national campaign.
Essex
Winner: Jeff Watson
2. Taras Natyshak
3. Susan Whelan
Watson will win by a landslide. Today at the Harper rally in Windsor the crowd was shouting “Jeff, Jeff, Jeff…” An honour non of the other local Conservative candidates received. Whelan’s campaign has been controversial with her being endorsed by the Buzz “bomb” and the question of her lobbyist activities have not been resolved. It wouldn’t surprise me is Watson gets the highest percentage of the vote this side of the Manitoba-Ontario border.
National
Conservatives - 158 seats (MAJORITY)
NDP - 56 seats
Bloq - 53 seats
Liberals - 41 seats
Liberal support is soft. People that say they will vote Liberal will not necessarily show up at the polls because they cannot bring themselves to vote for a corrupt Liberal party and cannot bring themselves to vote for anyone else. That will not be enough to hand a majority to the Conservatives. I see the undecided voters (12 to 15%) hooking up with the party that has all but won the election. Together these conditions will hand the Conservatives a majority, leaving the Liberals in a political wasteland to strip the deadwood from the party.
UPDATE: I just visited Blue Blogging Soapbox and they are predicting 158 also (WOW). I never looked at that before I posted. What a co-inky-dink! I actually had 161 down before I changed it at the last minute.
